On Extrapolating Past the Range of Observed Data When Making Statistical Predictions in Ecology

Ecologists are increasingly using statistical models to predict animal abundance and occurrence in unsampled locations. The reliability of such predictions depends on a number of factors, including sample size, how far prediction locations are from the observed data, and similarity of predictive covariates in locations where data are gathered to locations where predictions are desired. In this paper, we propose extending Cook’s notion of an independent variable hull (IVH), developed originally for application with linear regression models, to generalized regression models as a way to help assess the potential reliability of predictions in unsampled areas. Predictions occurring inside the generalized independent variable hull (gIVH) can be regarded as interpolations, while predictions occurring outside the gIVH can be regarded as extrapolations worthy of additional investigation or skepticism. We conduct a simulation study to demonstrate the usefulness of this metric for limiting the scope of spatial inference when conducting model-based abundance estimation from survey counts. In this case, limiting inference to the gIVH substantially reduces bias, especially when survey designs are spatially imbalanced. We also demonstrate the utility of the gIVH in diagnosing problematic extrapolations when estimating the relative abundance of ribbon seals in the Bering Sea as a function of predictive covariates. We suggest that ecologists routinely use diagnostics such as the gIVH to help gauge the reliability of predictions from statistical models (such as generalized linear, generalized additive, and spatio-temporal regression models).     

Phenotypic Profiling of Scedosporium aurantiacum,an Opportunistic Pathogen Colonizing Human Lungs

Genotyping studies of Australian Scedosporium isolates have revealed the strong prevalence of a recently described species: Scedosporium aurantiacum. In addition to occurring in the environment, this fungus is also known to colonise the respiratory tracts of cystic fibrosis (CF) patients. A high throughput Phenotype Microarray (PM) analysis using 94 assorted substrates (sugars, amino acids, hexose-acids and carboxylic acids) was carried out for four isolates exhibiting different levels of virulence, determined using a Galleria mellonella infection model. A significant difference was observed in the substrate utilisation patterns of strains displaying differential virulence. For example, certain sugars such as sucrose (saccharose) were utilised only by low virulence strains whereas some sugar derivatives such as D-turanose promoted respiration only in the more virulent strains. Strains with a higher level of virulence also displayed flexibility and metabolic adaptability at two different temperature conditions tested (28 and 37°C). Phenotype microarray data were integrated with the whole-genome sequence data of S. aurantiacum to reconstruct a pathway map for the metabolism of selected substrates to further elucidate differences between the strains.     

Genome‐wide analysis of Italian sheep diversity reveals a strong geographic pattern and cryptic relationships between breeds

Italy counts several sheep breeds, arisen over centuries as a consequence of ancient and recent genetic and demographic events. To finely reconstruct genetic structure and relationships between Italian sheep, 496 subjects from 19 breeds were typed at 50K single nucleotide polymorphism loci. A subset of foreign breeds from the Sheep HapMap dataset was also included in the analyses. Genetic distances (as visualized either in a network or in a multidimensional scaling analysis of identical by state distances) closely reflected geographic proximity between breeds, with a clear north–south gradient, likely because of high levels of past gene flow and admixture all along the peninsula. Sardinian breeds diverged more from other breeds, a probable consequence of the combined effect of ancient sporadic introgression of feral mouflon and long‐lasting genetic isolation from continental sheep populations. The study allowed the detection of previously undocumented episodes of recent introgression (Delle Langhe into the endangered Altamurana breed) as well as signatures of known, or claimed, historical introgression (Merino into Sopravissana and Gentile di Puglia; Bergamasca into Fabrianese, Appenninica and, to a lesser extent, Leccese). Arguments that would question, from a genomic point of view, the current breed classification of Bergamasca and Biellese into two separate breeds are presented. Finally, a role for traditional transhumance practices in shaping the genetic makeup of Alpine sheep breeds is proposed. The study represents the first exhaustive analysis of Italian sheep diversity in an European context, and it bridges the gap in the previous HapMap panel between Western Mediterranean and Swiss breeds.     

Central Place Foraging in Nonpatchy Habitats

This paper deal with a model of optimal foraging in a habitat with arbitrary food distribution. It takes into account an arbitrary risk cost related to the distance to the animal's nest. Food acquisition and risk cost are accounted for in common units of fitness. The resulting problem is solved in the context of Calculus of Variations. The optimal duration of absence from the nest and the optimal spatial allocation of foraging time are obtained: the optimal strategy leads to separate the habitat into a region to exploit and a region to ignore. The definition of these two distinct regions depends on the relative importance of risk and food availability. With realistic risk costs, the resulting strategy indicates a highly selective behaviour when far from the nest, as observed in field studies. The model is also extended to take account of the need of returning to the nest to guard it or to feed the young.     

para-hydroxybenzoate as an intermediate in the anaerobic transformation of phenol to benzoate

Anaerobic phenol transformation was studied using a consortium which transformed phenol to benzoate without complete mineralization of benzoate. Products of monofluorophenol transformation indicated para-carboxylation. Phenol and benzoate were detected during para-hydroxybenzoate (p-OHB) degradation. p-OHB was detected in phenol-transforming cultures containing 6-hydroxynicotinic acid (6-OHNA), a structural analogue of p-OHB, or at elevated initial concentrations of phenol (greater than or equal to 5 mM), or benzoate (greater than or equal to 10 mM).     

Two forms of sensitization of the local bending reflex of the medicinal leech

Sensitization of the local bending reflex of the medicinal leech Hirudo medicinalis was studied in a semi-intact preparation in which behavioral and electrophysiological recordings were made simultaneously. 1. Sensitization of local bending could be produced in two ways: by repeated stimulation of the mechanoreceptor sensitive to pressure (the P cell), and by stimulation of the mechanoreceptor sensitive to noxious stimuli (the N cell). 2. Both forms of sensitization produced a central neuronal change, measured as an increase in the number of stimulus-evoked action potentials in cell 3 (an excitor of dorsal longitudinal muscles). 3. Intracellular stimulation of serotonin-containing neurons 21 and 61 mimicked the sensitizing stimuli, but stimulation of the Retzius cell, which also contains serotonin, did not. 4. Stimulation of the Leydig cell, which releases octopamine, decreased the strength of local bending.     

Thermodynamics of hydrolysis of oligosaccharides

Microcalorimetry has been used to determine enthalpy changes for the hydrolysis of a series of oligosaccharides. High-pressure liquid chromatography was used to determine the extents of reaction and to check for any possible side reactions. The enzyme glucan 1,4-alpha-glucosidase was used to bring about the following hydrolysis reactions: (A) maltose(aq) + H2O(liq) = 2D-glucose(aq); (B) maltotriose(aq) + 2H2O(liq) = 3D-glucose(aq); (C) maltotetraose(aq) + 3H2O(liq) = 4D-glucose(aq); (D) maltopentaose(aq) + 4H2O(liq) = 5D-glucose(aq); (E) maltohexaose(aq) + 5H2O(liq) = 6D-glucose(aq); (F) maltoheptaose(aq) + 6H2O(liq) = 7D-glucose(aq); (G) amylose(aq) + nH2O(liq) = (n + 1) D-glucose(aq); and (H) panose(aq) + 2H2O(liq) = 3D-glucose(aq); (J) isomaltotriose(aq) + 2H2O(liq) = 3D-glucose(aq). The enzyme beta-fructofuranosidase was used for the reactions: (K) raffinose(aq) + H2O(liq) = alpha-D-melibiose(aq) + D-fructose(aq); and (L) stachyose(aq) + H2O(liq) = o-alpha-D-galactopyranosyl-(1----6)- alpha-o-D-galactopyranosyl-(1----6)-alpha-D-glucopyranose + D-fructose(aq). The results of the calorimetric measurements (298.15 K, 0.1 M sodium acetate buffer, pH 4.44-6.00) are: delta H0A = -4.55 +/- 0.10, delta H0B = -9.03 +/- 0.10, delta H0C = -13.79 +/- 0.15, delta H0D = -18.12 +/- 0.10, delta H0E = -22.40 +/- 0.15, delta H0F = -26.81 +/- 0.20, delta H0H = 1.46 +/- 0.40, delta H0J = 11.4 +/- 2.0, delta H0K = -15.25 +/- 0.20, and delta H0L = -14.93 +/- 0.20 kJ mol-1. The enthalpies of hydrolysis of two different samples of amylose were 1062 +/- 20 and 2719 +/- 100 kJ mol-1, respectively.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)     

Gelled diet for screwworm (Diptera: Calliphoridae) mass production

A rearing system based on a diet gelled with Water-Lock G-400, a synthetic superabsorbent (poly(2-propenamide-co-2-propenoic acid, sodium salt)) (WL), was compared with the standard rearing system (liquid diet suspended in acetate fibers) for the mass production of screwworms, Cochliomyia hominivorax (Coquerel). The WL rearing system yielded 2% heavier pupae, 32% higher egg to pupa survival, and required 54% less diet and 88% less labor than the standard rearing system. Other advantages of the WL system include reduced susceptibility to suboptimal environmental conditions and labor practices and characteristics conducive to centralization and mechanization of rearing procedures.     

Haplotype analysis of the human apolipoprotein B mutation associated with familial defective apolipoprotein B100.

Haplotype analysis was conducted on the mutant allele of 14 unrelated subjects heterozygous for a mutation in the codon for amino acid 3500 of human apolipoprotein B100. This mutation is associated with defective binding of low-density lipoprotein to the low-density lipoprotein receptor and with moderate hypercholesterolemia. Ten markers were used for haplotyping: eight diallelic markers within the structural gene and two hypervariable loci flanking the gene. Seven of eight unequivocally deduced haplotypes were identical, and one revealed only a minor difference at one of the hypervariable loci. The genotypes of the six other affected subjects were consistent with this same assigned haplotype. These data are consistent with a common ancestral chromosome and provide no evidence for a recurrent mutation at this potentially hypermutable CG dinucleotide, despite the fact that this mutation is not rare.